For Canadian Jews, this has been a perplexing election. I took my own advice, registering a protest vote against the Trudeau Government in a constituency the Liberals would win by a landslide, but felt very conflicted. A friend of mine, living in a constituency that was a Liberal-Conservative tossup, was changing their mind daily. Other friends struggled to develop a position that aligned Jewish interests with the interests of all Canadians; some did it in a way that led to voting Liberal, others in a way that led to voting Conservative.

The Plural of Anecdote is Data

All of these individual stories combine to produce what could be called the Jewish vote. Sociologist Robert Brym surveyed samples of approximately 500 Canadian Jews in 2021 and summer 2024 and found that support for the Conservatives increased from 36 to 55 percent while support for the Liberals decreased from 39 to 26 percent. He did another survey during the election campaign found that support for the Conservatives dropped slightly, from 57 to 50 percent, while support for the Liberals increased to 38 percent. Brym’s data shows that Jewish voters reflected the national shift towards the Conservatives in 2024 and away from them after Justin Trudeau’s resignation. That said, if his data from the election campaign is accurate, Jewish voters were more supportive of the Conservatives and less supportive of the Liberals than they had been before the Gaza War. And they were more supportive of the Conservatives and less supportive of the Liberals than the overall electorate.

The Four Ridings with the Largest Jewish Populations

Comparing the vote in 2021 and 2025 in the four ridings with the largest Jewish populations – three in Toronto and one in Montreal – tells a similar story. (Turnout was higher in all four ridings in 2025 than in 2021.) In Thornhill (30 percent Jewish), Conservative Melissa Lantsman’s vote increased from 25,000 (51 percent of the total vote) to 44,000 (66 percent), while the Liberal and NDP vote stayed at approximately 20,000. Lantsman is a high-profile advocate of Jewish causes, Russian by background, and co-deputy leader of the Conservative Party. In Mount Royal (21 percent Jewish), Liberal Anthony Housefather’s winning vote stayed constant at about 25,000 (51 percent in 2025), but the Conservative vote doubled from 10,000 in 2021 to 20,000 in 2025. Housefather has been as vigorous an advocate as Lantsman, but the increased vote for Conservative Neil Oberman, also Jewish, is indicative of discontent on the part of Jewish voters with the Liberal Party. In Eglinton-Lawrence (17 percent Jewish), Liberal Vince Gasparro received 30,000 votes, defeating Conservative Karen Stintz by 800 votes in 2025. In 2021, Liberal incumbent Marco Mendocino received 24,000 votes, defeating Conservative Jeff Pollock by 6000 votes.

Finally, in York Centre, Conservative Roman Baber received 26,000 votes defeating Liberal incumbent Ya’ara Saks by 6000 votes in 2025. In 2021 Saks received 17,000 votes, defeating her Conservative opponent by 4000. Both Baber and Saks are Jewish, but very different in background and ideology. Saks, a dual citizen of Israel and Canada has been very critical of the Netanyahu Government; Baber immigrated from Russia and is more supportive of the current Israeli Government. Baber’s campaign attacked Saks by posting billboards showing Saks meeting with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas.

What’s Next?

Brym’s polling numbers and the results from the 2025 election in the four ridings with the largest Jewish populations strongly show a sizeable shift in the Jewish community from Liberal to Conservative. An additional test would be the post-election survey that is usually undertaken by the Canada Election Study, which is funded by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC). Multiple regression analysis could be used to determine whether, with all other factors held constant, being Jewish makes a voter more or less likely to support each of the political parties. Pollster David Coletto argues that the Conservatives’ focus on issues of crime and security, affordability, and anti-immigrant sentiment resonated with suburban Toronto voters, which would include Jewish voters. If this is so, the impact of being Jewish (or technically speaking, the size and statistical significance of the coefficient for being Jewish) would be smaller.

Where do things go from here? Is the turn to the Conservatives the temporary result of dissatisfaction with the Trudeau Government’s response to the Gaza War and to the rise in antisemitism in Canada or is it a permanent shift? The focus of political attention is now the existential threat to Canada posed by the Trump Administration, and the Gaza War and rise in antisemitism are less salient. There aren’t any encampments that I know of, and perhaps there will be fewer antisemitic incidents.

What of the new Parliament? There will be nine Jewish members: Conservatives Melissa Lantsman, Roman Baber, Tamara Kronis (newly elected in Nanaimo, B.C.) and Liberals Anthony Housefather, Karina Gould, Julie Dabrusin, Ben Carr, Rachel Bendayan, and Evan Solomon (newly elected in Toronto Centre). This group represents some of the diversity of Canadian Jewry, with two MPs of Russian background (Lantsman and Baber), one Sephardi (Bendayan), and the other six Ashkenazi. On the other hand, there are 25 MPs who support the Vote Palestine initiative: 18 Liberals, 6 NDP, and one Green. Any debate regarding Gaza, Israel, or the Middle East will have a diversity of points of view. Nevertheless, the Carney Government has an opportunity to reset its policies toward the Middle East as a whole and to take action to respond to antisemitism.

Since October 7, the Jewish community has been on “high alert” status. That won’t change anytime soon.