In my post two weeks ago, I suggested that perplexed Jewish voters wait to vote on election day, after having heard the national debates and after having seen the latest public opinion polls. My wait-and-see approach has yielded considerable new information. Though this blog is, in the first instance, addressed to Jewish voters, there are non-Jewish voters for whom the issues of the Gaza War and rising antisemitism are important factors in their decision about whom to support.

The public opinion polls show the race tightening slightly. Eric Grenier’s latest edition of his poll aggregator The Writ has the Liberals leading the Conservatives nationally by 5 points (43 percent to 38 percent), down from 7 points two weeks ago. But the Liberals are maintaining their lead in Atlantic Canada, Quebec, Ontario, and British Columbia. On the basis of these regional leads and the overall weakness of the New Democratic Party (NDP) nationally (8 percent), he expects the Liberals to form a majority government.

Debating Gaza and Antisemitism

The English language leaders’ debate devoted roughly 4 minutes to the Gaza war and antisemitism (from 1:35:17 to 1:39). I strongly encourage my readers to listen intently to that segment of the debate and pay attention to the leaders’ words, tone, and emphasis.

I have several observations. Pierre Poilievre has the strongest rhetoric attacking Hamas, its Iranian sponsors, and antisemitism in Canada. Jagmeet Singh has no problem with the public debate and protests since the start of the Gaza war, and accused Mark Carney of “to date, not [acknowledging] that what is going on in Gaza has now clearly become a genocide.” Carney did not make such an acknowledgement, but restated his Government’s position favouring an immediate ceasefire, return of the hostages, and a two-state solution. One clear difference between the Liberals and Conservatives is that the Liberals have just provided $100 million in humanitarian aid, primarily to UNRWA, while the Conservative platform promises to defund UNRWA.

Vote Palestine

I’ve also learned about the Vote Palestine initiative, which has five demands: a two-way arms embargo on Israel, ending Canadian support for the Israeli settlements in the West Bank, combatting anti-Palestinian racism, recognizing the State of Palestine, and funding Gaza relief efforts including UNRWA. Its website shows that these demands are supported by 154 NDP candidates, including Jagmeet Singh; 61 Green candidates; 14 Liberal candidates, including Toronto area incumbents Salma Zahid, Nathaniel Erskine-Smith, and Adam Van Koeverden; and zero Conservative candidates.

Shifting Support

I think of a party’s position on this issue as an average of its leader’s rhetoric, its platform positions, and the views of its candidates. From this perspective, I think the majority of Canadian Jews would give the Conservatives the highest rating on support for Israel and opposition to antisemitism, followed by the Liberals, with the NDP a distant third. The CBC’s Toronto reporter Jamie Strashin did a story that aired on the national news last night, making clear the Jewish community’s distress about the sharp increase in antisemitism and the Trudeau Government’s ineffectual response. He quoted a survey of Jewish voters showing that close to 60 percent intend to vote Conservative and less than 40 percent intend to vote Liberal, a dramatic change from their stronger support of the Liberals in previous elections.

In the Voting Booth

For Jewish voters who prefer Mark Carney to Pierre Poilievre and the Liberals’ platform to the Conservatives’, this election presents a dilemma. But the large and stable Liberal lead in the public opinion polls provides a way out. You can vote Conservative to register a protest over the Trudeau Government’s response to the Gaza War (especially the embargo on selling arms to Israel) and to rising antisemitism and to pressure the Carney Government to take a position closer to the Conservatives.

Whether or not to register a protest vote requires awareness of the situation in your constituency. Consider some of the nine constituencies with the largest proportion of Jewish voters that I listed in my previous blog. Toronto St. Paul’s (11 percent Jewish) and Don Valley West (6 percent Jewish) according to Eric Grenier are safe Liberal seats so protest votes by Jewish constituents will send a message but will not affect the outcome.

Mount Royal, which is 21 percent Jewish, is also considered a safe Liberal seat. It was represented by Liberal Anthony Housefather, who has been a strong advocate for the Jewish community, so in this case there is no conflict. Thornhill, the constituency with the largest percentage of Jewish voters (30 percent), is represented by Conservative co-deputy leader

Melissa Lantsman. Grenier identifies it as leaning Conservative (that is, with a probability between 68 and 95 percent) but possibly Liberal. Lantsman has been as effective a voice for Canadian Jews as Housefather, so it is essential that she be re-elected. Jewish voters in Thornhill can ensure that this happens.

In York Centre, which is 14 percent Jewish, Liberal incumbent Ya’ara Saks and Conservative challenger Roman Baber are both Jewish. Grenier considers it a likely Liberal win. Similarly, Grenier considers Eglinton-Lawrence, which is 17 percent Jewish, a likely Liberal win.

Each riding presents a different mix of candidates and probabilities, and Jewish voters will be continuing to contemplate the choices right up until the moment we receive our ballots.