A redeveloped Ontario Place, housing the Therme Spa and the Ontario Science Centre, has become Doug Ford’s legacy project for his hometown. Those who were wondering if he would reconsider abandoning the Moriyama building in the face of loud protests from the architectural and technology communities received their answer this week. That answer consisted of his remarks at a press conference on July 10, followed by the release of several new documents the next day. However. I will discuss the documents first because they provided the basis for his remarks.

Banal, Unsurprising, and Superficial

Three new documents were released. First is a one-page letter from Director Neil Kortenaar and Chair John Carmichael. It begins with the “I feel your pain” meme: “ we have been incredibly touched by the outpouring of love and support [for] … this beloved building,” then attributes the closing to concern for “the health and safety of our employees and visitors,” and has the expected upbeat ending: “our future is bright … we are committed to providing incredible experiences in new and innovative ways for the people of Ontario.”

The second document is a peer review of the Rimkus roof assessment by Vanboxmeer and Stranges, a structural engineering firm. The peer review confirmed that the roof assessment’s evaluation of risks and recommendations were reasonable. This was problematic for the Ford Government because the roof assessment recommended incremental remediation, rather than shuttering the building. What it would have preferred was a conclusion that the original assessment understated the risks associated with the roof, but it didn’t receive that conclusion.

The third document is a 13-slide Powerpoint deck entitled Infrastructure Ontario and Ontario Science Centre Update, prepared by staff in Infrastructure Ontario and dated July 11. The key message of the deck is the slide entitled “growing number of problems at the Ontario Science Centre” that quotes the $478 million estimate of the cost of renovating the Science Centre from the business case released last fall and adds to it the cost of remediation of the roof ($20-$40 million), repairing the pedestrian bridge (cost tbd), dealing with heating issues ($1-$5 million), and restoring heating in one of the three buildings (costing tbd). The page then concludes with the following bolded sentence: all three buildings would need to be vacant to undertake critical repairs.

Two things strike me about this page. Despite the bridge being closed two years ago, Infrastructure Ontario still hasn’t costed out repairing it, which suggests that Infrastructure Ontario never considered repairing it. The bold print suggests that closing all three buildings is dispositive in the sense that if the buildings are vacated, they will never be used again. Even if Infrastructure Ontario is correct that these repairs would require closing all three buildings, the Powerpoint does not say how long they would need to be closed for, nor does it recognize that if the Moriyama building is closed, a temporary building wouldn’t be open immediately. It might well be that the Moriyama building could have to be vacated for a shorter time than is needed to re-open the Science Centre in a temporary building.

I’m not convinced by the Powerpoint that it makes no sense to repair the Moriyama building, even to keep it functioning until the Ontario Place building opens. I look forward to an analysis of the claims in the Powerpoint deck by architectural experts. Whether or not this Powerpoint convinces me or people in the architectural community, it certainly convinced Doug Ford. In his remarks, he refers to being briefed for over an hour, and I’m sure that an earlier version of this deck (with a political implications section that has been removed from the version intended for the public) was the basis of his briefing. I expect the briefing made the point that the Moriyama building and the building planned for Ontario Place are rivals for the loyalty of the public, so that it is politically necessary to abandon the older building, even if it could have been renovated to stay in operation until the new building opens. Hence my title.

Upselling the New and Dissing the Old

Ford’s remarks show how he distilled the briefing into a message for the public. He struck three themes.

First, the new Science Centre at Ontario Place will be great: “we’re gonna build a state-of-the-art world-class facility. It’s gonna have more exhibits … there’s gonna be more tourists come by, it’s gonna be spectacular.” “We’re gonna build the greatest science centre in the country, at a destination with other attractions.”

Second, the Moriyama building is unsafe: “I’m not gonna put those kids at risk. God forbid there’s a heavy rainfall.” “I’m not chancing it … I’m not gonna chance kids or people to be in there.”

Third, renovating the Moriyama building would be too expensive: “that place is absolutely just a total mess from top to bottom to front to back … every single building.” “It just doesn’t make sense to throw good money into an old, decrepit building.”

Ford’s remarks are the mixture of hyperbole, cliché, and populist grammar that characterizes his brand. (The print media use “going to” but I transcribe what I hear.)

A Look Ahead

Though you might suspect Yogi Berra, it was the physicist Neils Bohr who said, “prediction is difficult, especially about the future.” I will nonetheless make two predictions about the implications of Doug Ford’s decision.

The Ford Government is walking away from the Moriyama building and leaving it to the City of Toronto, on whose land it sits, to do something with it. But, as Mayor Olivia Chow made clear, the City doesn’t have the money. If the Ford Government’s desire is to destroy the Moriyama building, it certainly won’t provide financial support for it to operate as a Science Centre. It may provide support for demolition and a housing development to replace the upper building. Without roof repairs and without heat in the building that contains the great hall and auditorium, the complex will deteriorate more over the winter, and demolition will likely begin next spring.

The second prediction is that the Science Centre will hurt Ford in the 2026 election because the Moriyama building will be closed, a temporary building will not yet be open, and the Science Centre at Ontario will not have advanced much beyond the planning stage. The opposition parties will accuse Ford of destroying a great institution without replacing it. The Science Centre will be part of a narrative about Ford’s mindless and destructive attraction to shiny objects. How much this will resonate with the electorate, given all the other issues that will be in play, is beyond the scope of today’s forecast.