After the 2000 presidential election, President Bill Clinton declared, “the people have spoken but it’s going to take a little while to determine exactly what they said.” In the Billy Bishop Airport consultation, the people’s message – 87 percent opposition to expansion – was so clear that it could be announced the moment the consultation officially closed. And this was in response to an online survey that was biased to encourage support for expansion. I look forward to the prompt release of the results of both the online survey and the mail-in consultation so we can learn the details of the people’s message, for example among which groups opposition was strongest. Access to information requests should lead to Transport Canada making the data set available, so we can take deep dives into it.

While it may be premature, here is my weekend punditry. I draw three lessons from the results of the consultation process.

Public Discussion Mirrored Public Opinion

As soon as the consultation began, a coalition of community groups, citizens’ groups (Waterfront for All, NoJetsTO, Environmental Defence), and ad hoc groups such as the prominent citizens who launched RealityCheck sprang up to oppose expansion. There were numerous op-eds as well. I sensed the tide when I posted on X on May 14 that the plan to expand Pearson’s capacity from 50 to 65 million passengers, announced the day before, entirely undercut the plan to expand BBA. Within a day or two, my tweet had 32,000 views. This was not because I have such a large following, but because it was retweeted 200 times.

In sharp contrast, the proponents and supporters of expanding BBA were very quiet. When I told a CBC interviewer that estimates of the economic benefits of BBA were enormously overstated, she told me no business group was willing to go on-air to argue that they were accurate. The Ontario Chamber of Commerce and Toronto Board of Trade were muted in their support. The only op-ed I recall supporting expansion was by University of Toronto urbanist Richard Florida. Though Nieuport Aviation lobbied vigorously for the expansion, it was silent during the consultation. (What does it say about an organization if it is unwilling to make the case in public that it made in private?) The Ford Government has posted many ads with the Ontari-ari-ari-o outro promoting its policies, but it didn’t run one for Billy Bishop expansion.

I suggest three hypotheses to explain this silence. First, at the start of the consultation period the proponents believed their polls that said seventy percent of Torontonians supported expanding BBA, so they saw no need to speak up. Second, by the end of the consultation period, they realized the tide had turned and they thought resistance would be futile. Third, they considered making a case but realized that they didn’t have plans or analyses, only talking points.

Doug Ford is Losing It

Doug Ford’s supposed superpowers are his sensitivity to public opinion and his ability to reverse course if he senses that the public doesn’t support his position. Ford has recently been offside of public opinion on aviation twice, first with the purchase of a private jet for the premier, and second with the Building Billy Bishop Airport Act. One reason it is important to get the data from the online survey is to see whether Ford Nation is more supportive of expansion than the downtown “lefties”. With a total of 87 percent of those who completed the online survey opposing expansion, Ford Nation may also be opposed.

Transport Minister Prabmeet Sarkaria responded to the federal government’s decision by arguing that expansion is not a dead issue. The Ford Government’s communications are tightly controlled by the premier’s office, so we can assume Sarkaria is speaking for Ford, and he is not prepared to pivot. Ford consistently seems to dig in, regardless of public opposition, on grandiose infrastructure plans for the GTA. Expanding BBA, like building a tunnel under Highway 401, may turn out to be millstones around Ford’s neck in the next election.

The Next Round

The public discussion highlighted the fact that traffic at BBA has declined from 2.5 million passengers annually before the pandemic to 1.8 million now. At this level, it is doubtful that Nieuport Aviation is making any money for its owners, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. This gives Nieuport a strong incentive to continue to look for ways to expand traffic at BBA. Nieuport, together with the Toronto Port Authority, might do this incrementally, for example trying to persuade airlines to add flights to more US destinations to take advantage of having preclearance at BBA. Or they may ask for subsidies from the federal government to reduce landing fees.

Nieuport and the Toronto Port Authority, like the Ford Government, might not accept the results of the consultation as final. When the latter produces a detailed plan in 6 months to a year, it might demand another round of public consultation. Or Nieuport might threaten to close its terminal if BBA is not expanded. Its position would be that a boutique airport is no longer viable, and the public must choose between a larger BBA where jets are permitted and no BBA at all.

There are opponents of BBA in any form. I am one. We have been empowered by the results of the consultation and the federal government’s decision. We would welcome an opportunity to argue that it is now time to close BBA and convert the site to recreational uses.