Bill 110, the Building Billy Bishop Airport Act, received Royal Assent on June 2. Because of the restrictions on Freedom of Information requests enacted in the 2026 Ontario budget (Bill 97), the public will not be able to find out anything about the analysis the Ford Government undertook and whom it consulted regarding its decision to support the expansion of Billy Bishop Airport. We did learn that the Toronto Port Authority (TPA) has not yet produced a plan, but that it promises one within 6 months to a year.
I expect the plan will provide architectural drawings and cost estimates for the sole scenario of the airport accommodating jets. It will also include aspirational estimates of passenger demand, that is passenger levels that justify the expansion of the facility. And it will contain an estimate of the economic impact of expanding Billy Bishop Airport. Such an estimate, however, will be mendacious because it will refuse to admit that adding passengers and economic activity at Billy Bishop is tantamount to subtracting passengers and economic activity at Pearson. (As discussed in a previous post, Pearson will be expanded from 48 to 65 million passengers in less than 10 years, which should be more than enough capacity for the additional traffic the TPA would like to see at Billy Bishop).
Doing Stupid Shit
President Obama once shared with his staff a maxim for conducting foreign policy: Don’t Do Stupid Shit. Canada’s current economic emergency has provided an opportunity for governments to respond with big infrastructure projects, some of which on close examination fit the definition of stupid shit. In Ontario, many critics, including me, have argued that the Therme Spa and parking lot, fantasy tunnel under the 401, and expanded Billy Bishop Airport all constitute stupid shit.
Prime Minister Carney’s initial reaction to the Ford Government’s initiative to expand Billy Bishop was to call it “a very interesting vision” Interesting is a classic term of faint praise. It should come as no surprise that Carney has now shifted his position to say that “I personally have not formed an opinion, just to be absolutely clear, on the airport, in part because full [consultative] processes have not been done.”
What We Need Now
The City of Toronto has released an initial staff report on the housing and urban transportation impacts of expanding Billy Bishop Airport. It suggests that they could be very disruptive but asks for a detailed proposal from TPA before doing a thorough assessment. And the federal government has indicated that it will undertake public consultation. These are both important steps as far as they go.
If we are to have a wise choice about whether to expand Billy Bishop Airport, we need a serious airport planning study. The study would begin by defining major alternatives involving both Billy Bishop and Pearson, and other smaller airports in the GTA, such as Hamilton. Then it would look at factors such as passenger convenience, capital and operating cost, and environmental impact associated with each alternative. One of the alternatives it would evaluate is converting Billy Bishop into parkland and expanding capacity at the other airports.
Who would do such a study? As I argued at the outset, it won’t be the TPA or the Ford Government. The City of Toronto can do environmental, housing, and urban transportation impact analysis once the TPA reports. Because transportation is a federal responsibility the logical authority to examine transportation system impacts such as capital and operating cost and passenger convenience is Transport Canada. It would be preferable to solicit public reaction after the results of the studies are available. Unfortunately, that will not happen this summer, which will diminish the value of public consultation. Nonetheless, public consultation and policy analysis by the City of Toronto and the federal government will widen and inform the discussion about what to do with Billy Bishop Airport. If the discussion is left to the TPA and Ford Government, all we can expect is more stupid shit.
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