I recently listened to a webinar sponsored by Fair Vote Canada entitled “Towards a Multi-Party Approach to Electoral Reform in Ontario.” Fair Vote Canada is a citizen’s group that advocates for proportional representation (PR). The speakers included representatives of the three left-of-centre parties: Mike Schreiner, Green Party leader and MPP for Guelph; Chris Glover, NDP member for Spadina-Fort York and democratic reform critic; and Mary-Margaret McMahon, Liberal member for Beaches-East York.

The Progressive Conservative (PC) Party was invited but did not participate. Why would they? The status quo first-past-the-post (FPTP) system has served them well, as they have held power for 55 of the last 80 years, usually with majority governments supported by 40 to 45 percent of the electorate.

Progressive Party Positions

Of particular interest to me were the three progressive parties’ positions towards PR at this moment, given their vote shares and seat results in the 2025 election.

I recognize that if Ontario decides to implement electoral reform, it would require consideration of long-term structural issues in addition to the immediate electoral advantages for the existing parties. For example, PR systems tend to have more parties than FPTP, and require stipulating that parties need a minimum percentage of the total vote to have any seats in the Legislature. Such a discussion is beyond the scope of this post.

The Greens, who won 5 percent of the popular vote and 2 percent of the seats, have traditionally favoured PR. As a party with support throughout the province but with a concentration of support in only two small regions (Kitchener-Guelph and Toronto cottage country), the Greens will always have a greater share of the seats under PR than FPTP. Schreiner admitted that this element of self-interest complicates the Greens’ case for PR.

The NDP, too, have traditionally favoured PR. Glover noted that in the 2025 election the NDP vote was unusually efficient, translating 18 percent of the popular vote into 22 percent of the seats, but this does not affect their long-term support for PR.

Mary-Margaret McMahon described the Liberal caucus as being “in a bit of a mess.” What I think she meant to say is that it is in flux, at the very beginning of a leadership selection process that will not finish until late November. She observed that all the members of the caucus except interim leader John Fraser were first elected after Kathleen Wynne was premier. She considers herself a supporter of electoral reform and of electoral cooperation among the three progressive parties to encourage strategic voting. For example, she reports that during the recent election campaign she suggested the Liberals not run a candidate in Parry Sound-Muskoka, a seat that Green candidate Matt Richter narrowly lost to the PC Party’s Graydon Smith, and in Kitchener Centre, a seat that Green Party candidate Aislinn Clancy won with slightly more than fifty percent of the vote. Her suggestions were not accepted by the party leadership. Finally, she suggested that members of the audience ask Liberal leadership candidates for their views about electoral reform and cooperation among the three progressive parties.

The Liberals’ Dilemma

The Liberals’ results in the 2025 election illustrate the dilemma they face. They received thirty percent of the popular vote but only 14, or 11 percent, of the seats. Their support was widespread, but not sufficiently concentrated (or efficient) enough to take advantage of our FPTP system. Put differently, they very often came second. PR would have greatly benefited them.

On the other hand, 30 percent of the popular vote is within striking distance of the PC Party’s 43 percent. If there is a considerable share of the electorate, say 10 percent, that would readily shift from the PC Party to the Liberals in the next election, then the Liberals could benefit from the same advantage the PC Party now enjoys: roughly 40 percent of the popular voting translating into a majority of the seats in the Legislature. It all depends on the Liberals finding a more popular leader and more popular policies. Thus, the Liberals might still be reluctant to embrace electoral reform or cooperation with the other progressive parties in the 2029 campaign.

Therefore, I think McMahon is right that people should ask Liberal Party leadership candidates where they stand on electoral reform and cooperation with the other progressive parties.

Preparing for the Next Election

By 2029, Doug Ford will have been in power for 11 years and “time for a change sentiment” will be growing. Once a new Liberal leader is in place, the three progressive parties should make clear to the public their platform positions on electoral reform and whether they would cooperate by, in some constituencies, not nominating a candidate to facilitate strategic voting so that one of the two other progressive parties could defeat the PCs. They should also explain their positions about forming a progressive minority government if the PC Party doesn’t win a majority.

Ontario’s progressive voters, who form a slim majority of the electorate, are tired of Doug Ford, but also want to know what would replace him in terms of governance as well as policy.

PS. I will be on holiday the last two weeks of February. My next post will be in March.