In response to the Government of Ontario’s ad quoting a Ronald Reagan speech criticizing tariffs, Donald Trump announced that “ALL TRADE NEGOTIATIONS WITH CANADA ARE HEREBY TERMINATED.” Would a government really terminate trade negotiations with its second largest trading partner because its head of state doesn’t like an ad campaign run by a subnational jurisdiction? If Donald Trump is President, it might well. But I think Canadians are treating Trump’s pronouncement as one of his juvenile late-night temper tantrums.

Events don’t happen out of thin air, and it is useful to understand how the Ontario government came to launch this ad campaign, and why it drew such a furious reaction. One of the standard practices of Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservative Party, which has been in power since 2018, is using the government budget to pay for advocacy (one might also say partisan) advertising, mainly on mainstream media. Much of it has been directed at Ontarians, for example telling us how well our economy, and thus the Ford Government, is doing. Earlier this year, when Trump started referring to Canada as the 51^st state, the Ford Government ran an upbeat advertising campaign in the U.S reminding Americans of their long-standing economic partnership with Ontario. The latest ad, which was Premier Ford’s brainchild, cites Republican icon Ronald Reagan’s strong and articulate support for free trade and opposition to tariffs.

Furthermore, Doug Ford has defined his political brand as “captain Canada,” a tough-talking patriot who can stand up to the Americans. He won re-election last February by wearing a “Canada is not for sale” cap and defining the key issue as who can best protect Ontario. The Ford Government was also the first to pull American product from the shelves in the provincial liquor stores.

Donald Trump’s temper tantrum is easy to understand. The Ontario ads use the voice and words of an American icon against him and attempt to mobilize the traditional Republican Party against the MAGA Party. While foreign governments lobby the U.S. through diplomatic channels, only one foreign government – a subnational one, no less – has gone public through mainstream media advertising. The ads, often run during the baseball playoffs, are being noticed. This is a shocking contrast to the dominance Trump craves and obsequiousness he demands in Oval Office visits by foreign leaders.

Trump had his tantrum. The Ford Government will pull the ads, but only after the first two World Series games. Trump will call it a win, but his temper tantrum can only increase the attention paid to the ads, a win for Ford. Negotiations will resume.

The most difficult aspect of the negotiations concerns the Canadian auto sector, which is located entirely in Ontario. The federal and Ontario governments are clinging to the vision embodied in trade agreements for the last sixty years of an integrated U.S.-Canada auto industry with parts and assembled vehicles moving freely across the border in a balanced flow. However, Trump and Commerce Secretary Lutnick have continually said that the auto assembly is a strategic sector, and Canada should not be exporting cars to the U.S., period. Their threats and the imposition of tariffs on the auto sector have already begun to have an impact. Last week Stellantis said it would move production of a new Jeep model from suburban Toronto to Illinois (3000 jobs) and GM said it would stop production of its electric van in southwest Ontario (1200 jobs). The Government of Canada is treating these moves as a betrayal of promises Stellantis and GM made in return for government support. It is responding by threatening to sue the manufacturers and imposing quotas and tariffs on autos they export from the U.S. to Canada.

As populists, Donald Trump and Doug Ford have a common vision. They see manufacturing as essential to the economy and blue collar, traditionally male, jobs in manufacturing as essential to their political success. This is win-lose, not win-win. Negotiations will resume now that Doug Ford has once again flipped the bird at Donald Trump and Donald Trump has had his temper tantrum. But with these irreconcilable differences it is unlikely that the negotiations will get to yes anytime soon.