The constituency of Don Valley East is a rectangular slice of suburban Toronto containing 94,000 people in 23 square kilometres. It’s definitely less well off than its next-door neighbour Don Valley West, with 44 percent of its population speaking English at home, and a median income of $36,000 in 2020, and an average income of $51,000 (compared to Don Valley West’s 55 percent English speakers, median income of $48,000, and average income of $114,000).

Here is what I’ve been able to find by searching online about the candidates for the four major parties contesting the provincial election.

Dr. Adil Shamji (Liberal) is the incumbent, elected in 2022, and served as critic for health and housing. After earning his M.D. from the University of Toronto in 2011, he worked as an emergency physician at Michael Garron Hospital, which serves many of the constituents in Don Valley East. In 2017, he completed a Master of Public Policy at the University of Oxford. He is the only member of the legislature elected in 2022 who has either of those credentials. Throughout his medical career, he served in Indigenous communities across Northern Ontario and the Canadian Arctic. As health critic, he has been vocal about deficiencies of the Ford Government’s health care system such as unacceptable emergency care wait times and the shortage of family physicians. He has also led efforts to save the Ontario Science Centre, located in Don Valley East.

Roger Gingerich (Progressive Conservative) is running for the first time. He has 35 years of experience in the fashion industry, is the CEO of the Canadian International Film Festival, and is a Director of the London-based Commonwealth Fashion Council. His Instagram page has scores of photos of him at fashion shows and galas.

Frank Chu (NDP) is also running for the first time. He is a registered social worker with a degree from the Schulich School of Business as well. He has served as a relief foster parent with the Children’s Aid Society.

Joshua Miersch (Greens) is also a political neophyte. He is an environmental studies student at York University, aiming to be a high school teacher, and he also works as a maintenance technician.

The Situation on the Ground

Eric Grenier, the poll aggregator in The Writ, in his latest projection (February 13) calls Don Valley East leaning to the Liberals, which means he estimates their chance of winning as between 68 and 95 percent. Grenier considers the PC Party “possible”, which he defines as having an outside chance of winning, and he considers neither the NDP nor the Greens in contention. In the 2022 election, Shamji received 12,000 votes (44 percent), PC candidate Sam Moini (who is running in Don Valley West this time) received 9000 votes (32 percent), the NDP candidate received 4000 votes (16 percent) and the Greens candidate 1000 votes (4 percent).

What should the roughly 5000 NDP and Green supporters in Don Valley East do in this election? The winner is certain to be either Dr. Adil Shamji or Roger Gingerich. In an uncertain world, I would like to see the probability of Adil Shamji winning as high as possible, and the probably of Roger Gingerich winning as low as possible. If NDP and Green supporters vote for their preferred party, they are decreasing the probability that the only M.D. in the legislature – a knowledgeable and superbly effective critic of the Ford Government’s health case policies – will be a re-elected. And they are increasing the probability that Roger Gingerich, whose happy place appears to be schmoozing and hanging out with the beautiful people, will be elected. I think it fair to say that Gingerich does not reflect the population or the values of the constituency. In contrast, Adil Shamji tells people – I’ve heard him – that he went into politics to help more people than he could help as an emergency room physician.

If the Liberals form the Government, Shamji will certainly be minister of health. If the PCs are re-elected, Dr. Adil Shamji will continue his role holding the Ford Government to account for its failings in health policy. I urge my NDP and Green friends living in Don Valley East to vote strategically to ensure that Dr. Adil Shamji is re-elected.