This is an existential election for Canadian Jews. For us, it is about Canada’s support for the existence of the State of Israel, about the existence of a Jewish community in Canada, and about Canada’s existence as a tolerant multi-ethnic society.

The Trudeau Government’s words and actions since the start of the war in Gaza have not been reassuring. Despite its continued rhetorical recognition of Israel’s right to exist, it has embargoed arms sales supportive of that right. Prime Minister Trudeau’s unwillingness to set foot in Israel on any of his numerous overseas trips sends a message of the absence of solidarity. (His only visit to Israel was in 2016 for the funeral of Shimon Peres.) His Government has consistently deplored the upsurge in antisemitism but has taken no action such as legislation to prevent demonstrations close to houses of worship or religious education. Jews constitute only one percent of the Canadian population, and we are now asking the perennial question of whether it is time to leave. A failure of Canada to prevent the demonization of its Jewish minority would call into question the Canadian self-image as a tolerant and supportive society for its many minorities.

The Political Context

Opposition leader Pierre Poilievre and his co-deputy leader Melissa Lantsman have expressed much stronger support for Israel and opposition to antisemitism than the Trudeau Government. The Conservatives have recently posted this ad on YouTube directed at Jewish voters.

Many voices in the Jewish community are now urging support for the Conservatives. I was sent an article by filmmaker Igal Hecht asking whether the Canadian Jewish community has a future and forwarded an email by Revi Mula, Vice-president of Canadian Women Against Antisemitism, outlining that organization’s fruitless attempts to influence the Trudeau Government’s policies since the start of the Gaza War.

Here is some background about recent Jewish voters. The 2019 Canada Election Study in its post-election survey found that 46 percent of Jews voted Liberal, 43 percent Conservative, 8 percent NDP, 2 percent Green, and 0 for the Bloc (from a sample of 112). For the national sample of 10,300, 33 percent voted Liberal, 34 percent Conservative, 16 percent NDP, 8 percent Bloc, and 7 percent Green. Thus, Jewish voters were much less supportive of the three smaller parties, and slightly more supportive of the Liberals than the entire electorate.

A Guide for the Perplexed

In this election, what should Jewish voters troubled by the Trudeau Government’s record on Israel and antisemitism do?

If these are the only issues that matters to you, the clear answer is to vote for the Conservatives. The NDP’s and Greens’ positions have been worse than the Liberals, and Quebec Jews have never supported the sovereigntist Bloc Quebecois, as the 2019 Canada Election Study indicates. If you like the rest of the Conservatives’ platform and their leader Pierre Poilievre, then their positions on Israel and antisemitism seal the deal.

The issue is much more complicated if you support the Liberals and Mark Carney. I think Carney’s knowledge of economics and record in crisis management make him far preferable to Poilievre. In addition, I find Poilievre far too Trumpy in his positions regarding the environment (axe the carbon tax on producers), social and cultural policy (defund the CBC), and foreign policy (cut development assistance). On the other hand, the Carney Government’s statements regarding the Gaza War and $100 million in support for Gaza and the Palestinian Authority are a clear continuation of the Trudeau Government’s policies.

The conundrum, then, is whether to vote Liberal despite the Liberal’s positions on the Gaza War and antisemitism or to vote Conservative only because of the Conservatives’ positions on these issues.

Here’s my advice, which I hope to follow.

First, wait until election day on April 28 to vote. We may hear more from both the Liberals and Conservatives about their positions on Israel and antisemitism, for example in the leaders’ debates.

Second, pay close attention to the public opinion polls. If the polls continue to forecast a decisive Liberal victory, then voting for the Conservatives would constitute a protest vote. On the other hand, if the election appears to be close, then Jewish votes in the handful of ridings where there are large Jewish populations could be decisive. Here are the 9 ridings with the largest Jewish populations: Thornhill (30 percent), Mount Royal (21 percent), Eglinton-Lawrence (17 percent), York Centre (14 percent), Toronto-St. Paul’s (11 percent), Outremont (9 percent), Notre-Dame-de-Grace-Westmount (8 percent), Winnipeg South Centre (7 percent), Pierrefonds-Dollard (7 percent), and Don Valley West (6 percent).

Thornhill was represented by Conservative co-deputy leader Melissa Lantsman; Mount Royal by Liberal Anthony Housefather, a notable critic of his own government’s policies on Gaza and antisemitism; and Outremont by Rachel Bendayan, Minister of Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship in the Carney Government, and its only Jewish minister.

My conclusion now is that we will have a lot to think about during Seders, the Passover season, and the election campaign.