This week saw two wins for strategic voting in the Ontario election. Natasha Doyle-Merrick, the NDP candidate in the Toronto riding of Eglinton-Lawrence withdrew her candidacy, saying “I recognize the race in Eglinton-Lawrence is a clear two-party contest between the Liberals and the Conservatives. To prevent a Conservative win … I’m stepping aside.” The second win is that the Liberals did not nominate a candidate in Windsor West, which is also a two-party contest, but between the NDP and the PC Party. Let’s look at the situation in both ridings.

Eglinton-Lawrence is a swing riding between the Liberals and the PC Party, won by the PC Party’s Robin Martin by 900 votes in 2014 and 600 votes in 2022. Eric Grenier considers it a tossup between the Liberals and the PC Party this time, with neither the NDP nor the Greens in contention. Robin Martin isn’t running this time, being replaced by Michelle Cooper, who went from a career in online commerce to be the Executive Director of the PC Ontario Fund, Doug Ford’s chief fund-raiser. Vince Gasparro, the Liberal candidate, is equally high profile, with a career in sustainable finance and clean energy infrastructure projects, participation in the Canadian delegations to COP26 and COP27, and membership on the boards of World Wildlife Fund Canada and the Canadian Infrastructure Bank. He was also Principal Secretary to former Toronto Mayor John Tory. Both Cooper and Gasparro live in the riding.

In the 2022 election, Robin Martin (PC Party) had 16,600 votes (42 percent), Liberal Arlena Hebert 16,000 (41 percent), NDP Natasha Doyle-Merrick 3600 (10 percent) and Green Leah Tysoe 1500 (4 percent). Natasha Doyle-Merrick resigned her candidacy early enough that her name won’t be on the ballot, so the bulk of her support in the previous election may shift to Vince Gasparro. In addition, his environmental credentials are strong enough that Green supporters may be comfortable voting for him. These factors may enable him to win the seat. However, turnout can always make a difference, especially in the winter.

Windsor West has been held since 2014 by the NDP’s Lisa Gretzky, who is their critic for Mental Health and Addictions as well as Poverty and Homelessness Reduction. Before entering provincial politics, she served for 6 years on the Essex County District School Board. Gretzky defeated the PC Party candidate in 2018 by 9000 votes, but the 2022 election was much closer. She had 13000 votes (42 percent), the PC Party candidate 11,000 (35 percent), the Liberal 4000 (13 percent), and the Green candidate 1000 (3 percent). Two small right-wing parties – Ontario Party and True Blue – had a total of 2000 votes, equal to Gretzky’s margin over her PC Party opponent. This time, despite Gretzky’s incumbency, Eric Grenier calls Windsor West as leaning to the PC Party (that is, a probability between 68 and 95 percent), with the NDP possible. The PC Party candidate, Tony Francis, is not high-profile, and ChatGPT told me it could find no information about his background and platform online. The Liberals didn’t nominate a candidate, in effect encouraging strategic voting by default.

The Windsor West campaign will therefore be fascinating, with a long-serving and high profile NDP incumbent; low profile PC Party candidate; absence of a Liberal candidate, which could shift several thousand votes to the NDP; and support for right-wing conservative parties that could shift votes to the PC Party. This is definitely one to watch.

A Harbinger?

Could these two wins for strategic voting be a harbinger of more resignations by Liberal or NDP candidates who aren’t competitive? (I doubt Green candidates would resign, since they see their candidacies as consciousness-raising rather than being in it to win it.) Even if there aren’t resignations of candidates, particularly strong showings by either Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie or NDP leader Marit Stiles could encourage supporters of one party to vote strategically for the other. The leaders’ debate this coming Monday could be a game-changer. I’m staying tuned.