The constituency (riding) of Don Valley West is a rectangular slice of suburban Toronto containing 100,000 people in 30 square kilometers. It includes some of the richest and most famous (Drake) as well as many recent immigrants; only 55 percent of its population speaks English at home. An economist would note the vast disparity between its median income in 2020 ($48,000) and its average income ($114,000).

Here is what I’ve been able to find by searching online about the candidates for the four major parties contesting it in this month’s provincial election.

Stephanie Bowman (Liberal) is the incumbent, elected in 2022, and serves as the Liberals’ critic for finance, jobs, and the economy. She is a CA, was a partner at Clarkson Gordon (which then merged with Ernst and Young) where she worked as a management consultant. She moved to banking, where she held senior executive positions at CIBC (Internal Oversight) and Scotiabank (International Banking). She has served on several boards, including the Bank of Canada. She and her family have lived in Don Valley West for 30 years.

Sam Moini (Progressive Conservative) came to Canada from Iran with his parents. He has worked as the owner of a small taxi company and has been President of the Toronto Taxi Fleet Association. He is a part-time member of the Licence Appeal Tribunal of the Ontario Government. He ran unsuccessfully for Toronto City Council in 2018 in Willowdale and in the 2022 provincial election in Don Valley East.

Linnea Lofstrom-Abary (NDP). I found out about her mainly from her Instagram page where she refers to herself as “young and unafraid” and an “activist and progressive organizer” and “public servant.” She appears to be in her twenties. In 2023-24, she was the Equity and Education Officer for the Canadian Union of Public Employees Local 2626 at the University of Ottawa. This is her first time running for a political office.

Sheena Sharp (Green) is the principal architect and owner of Coolearth Architecture Inc., a small architecture firm that focuses on energy-efficiency and repurposing existing buildings. She has 25 years of experience as an architect and has served two terms as President of the Ontario Association of Architects. She is a long-time resident of Don Valley West and ran there in the 2022 provincial election and 2024 by-election for Toronto City Council.

The Latest Public Opinion Polls

Eric Grenier, the poll aggregator in The Writ, projects riding-by-riding results from provincial totals. On February 9, he was calling Don Valley West a tossup between the Liberals and Progressive Conservatives (that is, neither has a probability of winning greater than 68 percent), with neither the NDP nor the Greens in contention. This call is close to the results of the 2022 election, in which Stephanie Bowman won 16,000 votes (44 percent), Progressive Conservative (PC) Mark Saunders 14,000 (39 percent), NDP candidate Irwin Elman 3000 (9 percent), and Green candidate Sheena Sharp 2000 (six percent). One big difference with this election is the much higher public profile of the PC and NDP candidates in 2022. Mark Saunders was a former Chief of Police for Toronto and Irwin Elman served from 2008 to 2019 as the first Provincial Advocate for Children and Youth, an independent office reporting to the Legislature (and he was appointed an Officer of the Order of Canada in 2023).

Perhaps the PC strategy is to run a low-profile candidate with a connection to a major ethnic or religious group in the riding. Don Valley West, according to the 2021 Census, is 16 percent Muslim, with 3 percent speaking Persian. When Sam Moini ran in 2022 in Don Valley East, which is 22 percent Muslim, his Facebook posts show a great deal of campaigning in the Muslim community. In a close election, shifting votes from this traditionally Liberal group could flip the riding. The NDP’s choice of a neophyte candidate with no apparent connection to the riding suggests the party is giving it a very low priority.

My Choice

Any reader of this blog knows I am a strong critic of the Ford Government, which in my opinion has spent too much money on the wrong priorities (highways rather than health or education), has given selective tax cuts to favoured constituencies rather than providing broad tax reductions, and has made egregious decisions about public institutions in Toronto (most notably closing the Ontario Science Centre in Don Mills and contracting with Therme Group to build a massive spa at Ontario Place). But my vote is not just a vote against Doug Ford’s PC Party. I prefer the Liberal’s policies, which emphasize ensuring that every Ontarian has a family physician, increasing the supply of housing, and enacting a broad-based middle-income tax cut.

Finally, my vote is a vote of confidence in Stephanie Bowman. To understand the Ford Government’s record of fiscal mismanagement and sweetheart contracts, you need someone with the ability to follow the money. As an accountant and executive, she has those skills. She has also introduced legislation to cut taxes for small businesses, to extend protection for renters, and to investigate wasteful deals and cost overruns – all of which the Ford Government would not support. She has worked tirelessly in her role as community advocate. Despite the austere image of accountants, she is a friendly extrovert, and I think it is a testament to the importance she places on family that her husband, children, and even parents often accompany her to constituency events.

The Strategic Voting Decision

The roughly 3000 NDP and 2000 Green supporters in Don Valley West will have to decide whether to vote strategically. If the race is a toss-up, by voting Green or NDP they are making it more likely the constituency will elect a PC backbencher. On the other hand, if they vote for Stephanie Bowman, they are voting for the person most likely to be Finance Minister if the Liberals form a government.

If the Conservatives form a government but Stephanie Bowman retains her seat, the voters of Don Valley West will have chosen an opposition member who has the capacity to hold the PCs accountable in one of their worst and unfortunately most consequential areas of performance. A strong opposition in the Legislature that we are electing this month will make it easier to defeat the PCs in the next election. Stephanie Bowman’s corporate background isn’t the typical background of an NDP or Green candidate. But it does provide a set of skills that are essential to an effective opposition. I’m proudly voting for Stephanie Bowman, Liberal, in Don Valley West, and I hope that my NDP and Green Party friends will join me.