When Justin Trudeau had dinner with Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago last November, Trump asked what the impact of tariffs would be. Speaking as an ally and a friend, naively it now appears, Trudeau said they would have a severe impact on the Canadian economy. Since that dinner, Canadian governments have responded to Trump’s original complaint to justify tariffs, working assiduously to harden what was once called “the longest undefended border in the world” by putting in place Blackhawk helicopters, drones, and patrols. Since that dinner, Trump – showing himself to be no friend of Canada – has been telling those around him that the leader of Canada admits that tariffs would greatly damage the Canadian economy. Yesterday, despite our work to respond to the complaint about the border, we got tariffs.

What are the Facts?

Not that facts matter to Donald Trump, but in broad strokes these are the facts. Very little of the fentanyl illegally entering the U.S. (approximately 1 percent) is coming from Canada and very few of the people entering the U.S. (approximately 1 percent) are coming across the Canada-U.S. border.

Canada and the U.S. have a two-way trading relationship of approximately 1 trillion dollars annually that, overall, is balanced. Canada exports more natural resources (oil, gas, minerals) and the U.S. exports more intellectual property (Hollywood films, streaming and network television, computer software), and manufacturing is essentially balanced (the tightly integrated automobile assembly industry). In Trump’s first term Canada, the U.S., and Mexico renegotiated NAFTA, the worst trade deal in history according to Trump, renamed a slightly changed agreement USMCA, and gave Trump a big win.

Shock and Awe

The first fourteen days of Trump’s second presidency have seen a flood of measures intended to shock and awe Trump’s perceived enemies, domestic and foreign. They have included attacks on political enemies; rule by executive order; the imposition of tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China; threats of tariffs against the E.U.; and threats of military action to seize strategic assets such as the Panama Canal and Greenland. Externally, Trump seems to be intending to convert alliances such as NATO into an American Empire, in which the U.S. uses economic and military threats to dominate.

The U.S.’s real adversaries – China and Russia – are undoubtedly looking for opportunities in this weakening of the western alliance. China will be offering closer economic co-operation and Russia will be considering military action along its borders.

A History of Cooperation

Though Donald Trump ignores history, it is essential to recall the close history of military, cultural, and economic cooperation between the U.S. and Canada. We have fought side by side in every major war since World War I (though Canada did not participate in Vietnam and Iraq, two wars we regarded as over-reach, a judgment borne out by history). Key moments in this history of cooperation include

• Canadian assistance in bringing American hostages safely out of Iran after the Iranian revolution, memorialized by the film Argo
• President Clinton’s expression of support for a strong united Canada on the eve of the 1995 Quebec referendum on sovereignty, a message noticed by Quebec voters
• Canada sheltering airline passengers diverted from U.S. airspace on 9-11, memorialized by the musical Come from Away
• Canadian assistance during the Los Angeles fires last month, including sending the only water bombers able to use seawater.

The Canadian Reaction

Donald Trump seems to think that because Canada’s prime minister’s popularity is low in the waning months of his mandate, Canada will collapse like a house of cards. My reading of public opinion here is very different. Canadians, while feeling betrayed by Trump, are united and determined. There is very strong public support for the tariffs that Canada announced last night. Public reaction, in effect boycotts of high-profile American goods, may intensify the impact of our tariffs. And we will be looking for trade and investment partnerships to increase our independence from the U.S.

The political scene in Canada is changing as I write. With the key political issue being the relationship with the U.S., Canadian voters are asking themselves which of the candidates to replace Justin Trudeau as leader of the Liberal Party and, soon afterwards, which of the candidates in the general election can best stand up to Donald Trump.

The End Game

What is the end game of the trade wars that Trump is initiating with Canada, Mexico, China, and, coming soon, the E.U.? The U.S.’s allies are open to an honest and truthful discussion of ways to build a better alliance. Trump seems to be intent on building an American Empire, in which the U.S. dominates economically and seizes territory as it pleases. The U.S. will face economic resistance, as Canada and Mexico are demonstrating, as will Europe. There will be growing opposition to this costly imperial vision within the U.S. As a Canadian from birth and an optimist by nature, I will bet on the alliance.