Three decades ago, I co-authored a book with Allan Blakeney, the Premier of Saskatchewan from 1971 to 1982. I continue to refer to my collaboration with Blakeney in thinking about political decision making, especially by first ministers. In this post I will apply Blakeney’s ideas about selecting ministers and timing elections to some recent decisions made by Doug Ford.

Swapping Ministries in June

In addition to the standard rationale of encompassing the diversity of the electorate, Blakeney argues that the selection of ministers is influenced by party factionalism, the talents and ambitions of ministers, and the government’s evolving agenda. Blakeney makes the point that seemingly anomalous choices of portfolios may be due to the evolving agenda being clearer to the premier than to the voters.

Ford’s most significant decision in his June 6 cabinet shuffle was something unusual: having Stephen Lecce (Minister of Education) and Todd Smith (Minister of Energy) swap jobs. Lecce had been Education Minister for five years, a difficult portfolio in any conservative government because of conflict with the teachers’ and educational workers’ unions. Lecce is young, ambitious, and a possible successor to Ford. I think Lecce was interested in a portfolio more closely aligned to the government’s evolving priorities. Energy involves advancing Ontario’s position as a producer of clean energy (unfortunately much more than influencing Ontarians to be consumers of clean energy).

Todd Smith was first elected to the Legislature in 2011 and held several portfolios including energy from 2021 to 2024. Smith was unhappy about the swap for exactly the same reasons Lecce welcomed it. Smith resigned on Friday August 16 (after having met with the premier two days before) to take a position as Vice-President of Marketing and Business Development for Candu Energy, the major Canadian producer and exporter of nuclear reactors. Smith chose to cash in on his (nuclear) energy expertise by moving to a more lucrative and less stressful job, rather than dealing with the challenges of the educational system. I’m sure Ford understood the adage “don’t get angry, get even.”

The Cabinet Shuffle in August

Smith’s resignation left a major vacancy in the Education portfolio. Ford’s appointment of Minister of Colleges and Universities Jill Dunlop to the Education portfolio was reasonable because she has a background in education, having served as a faculty member and administrator at Georgian College.

Smith’s replacement at Colleges and Universities is a surprise, and not in a good way. Nolan Quinn is a first term MPP with a safe Conservative seat in eastern Ontario (Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry). Quinn has a college diploma and spent most of his career before politics as a Dairy Queen franchisee in Cornwall. He was promoted from the entry-level cabinet position of Associate Minister of Forestry. Blakeney claims that a person with natural intelligence and some political skill, with the help of a strong public service, can perform effectively as minister in any department. The college and university leadership will also try to educate Quinn to understand the role higher education can play.

Returning to Blakeney’s point about matching ministers to the government’s agenda, the appointment of so junior a minister to the colleges and universities portfolio makes clear that it ranks low in the Ford Government’s priorities. That portfolio recently got a $1.3 billion three-year funding package, as I discussed in a previous post, so there is nothing more in the pipeline. A good portfolio, therefore, for a junior minister learning the ropes.

From my perspective as an emeritus professor, the Ford Government’s focus on the trades and not-so-benign neglect of higher education is short-sighted. For the Ford Government, economic development is all about building physical infrastructure (roads, subways, housing, hospitals). More successful economies than Ontario’s focus on research, development, and innovation.

The By-Election

While the premier has six months in which to call a by-election, Ford chose the first possible date, which is Thursday September 19. Smith’s seat – Bay of Quinte – is a safe Conservative one, and Ford was taking advantage of the Conservatives’ lead in the public opinion polls and stronger funding than the opposition parties.

Our thinking about the timing of general elections has evolved over time to favour fixed dates for general elections to level the playing field for all parties by reducing the advantages of incumbency. Ontario’s Elections Act now mandates holding a general election on the first Thursday in June every four years. This was not the case in Blakeney’s time; in our book he discusses how he decided to call an election in 1978, the third year of his mandate, because he anticipated the Conservatives would win a federal election in 1979 and felt his Saskatchewan NDP Government would be in a stronger position running for re-election before the federal Conservatives were elected. He was right: the Saskatchewan NDP was re-elected in 1978 and Joe Clark’s federal Conservatives defeated Pierre Trudeau’s Liberals in 1979.

The Ontario Elections Act gives the Lieutenant Governor the power to dissolve the Legislature when (s)he sees fit, which gives the Lieutenant Government’s chief advisor – the premier – the power to over-ride the four-year mandate. And Ford has frequently signaled he may well do that. This is a philosophy of playing political hardball whenever possible, even if it means ignoring conventions of political fairness. Remember, this is a premier who sees the notwithstanding clause in the constitution as a convenient legal tool. (Blakeney was premier during the negotiations leading to the Constitution Act of 1982 and supported the notwithstanding clause, but I think he would have been dismayed by how frequently premiers are now using it.)

In the 2022 provincial election in Bay of Quinte, the Conservatives had 49 % of the vote, New Democrats 21 %, Liberals 18 %, Greens 6 %, and two small right-wing parties (New Blue and the Ontario Party) 5%. In my recent blog post, I identified this as the situation in which strategic voting by progressive voters is unlikely to occur. The Conservatives immediately nominated Tyler Allsop, a member of Belleville City Council and small business owner. The Liberals quickly nominated Sean Kelly, also a member of Belleville City Council, and a broadcaster and radio station manager. The NDP shortly thereafter nominated Amanda Robertson, who represents Belleville on the Hastings and Prince Edward District School Board. All three major parties therefore have candidates with high local profiles and credibility.

I think the most interesting thing to watch in the by-election is whether the Liberals or NDP dominate the progressive vote. I think it likely the Conservative will win. Both the Liberal and NDP leaders will be testing their approaches for the general election. If one party does much better than the other in a safe Conservative seat, that might provide some indication about strategic voting among progressive voters in the next election, whether it comes in 2026 or sooner.