The Liberal wave predicted by all the public opinion polls doesn’t seem to have abated or even crested. In a recent Substack post, pollster David Coletto shares the results of a statistical analysis of his firm’s surveys, and the two biggest takeaways are that believing the key issue is handling the Trump Administration and having a favourable impression of Mark Carney are the strongest predictors of the intention to vote for the Liberals.

The View from Toronto

According to Eric Grenier’s seat projections, Don Valley West, where I live, was considered a likely Conservative seat last fall, but is now counted as a safe Liberal seat. Another seat that I’m very interested in is Taiaiako’n-Parkdale-High Park. It was previously named Parkdale-High Park, but the most recent Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission, as an act of indigenous reconciliation, added the name of an Iroquois village that once stood there.

I have a disclaimer. The Liberal candidate, Karim Bardeesy, is a colleague and friend. I met him some years ago team-teaching a public policy course at the University of Toronto’s School of Public Policy and Governance (now part of the Munk School of Global Affairs). Bardeesy is thoughtful, public-spirited, and an excellent instructor. He has a wide range of experience, including earning his Master of Public Policy at the Harvard Kennedy School, writing for both The Toronto Star and The Globe and Mail, working as a senior adviser to Premiers McGuinty and Wynne, and most recently leading a public policy and leadership institute at Toronto Metropolitan University. He just received the King Charles III Coronation Medal for public service (as did I).

Bardeesy has very strong competition. In a federal riding that is competitive primarily between the Liberals and the NDP, the NDP candidate is Bhutila Karpoche, who represented it provincially between 2018 and 2024. Karpoche was born in Nepal, emigrated to Canada, and earned a Master of Public Health majoring in epidemiology at the University of Toronto. She is the first person of Tibetan background ever elected to public office in North America. She has an excellent record representing her constituency, and she won both the 2018 and 2022 elections by large margins (in 2022 her main rival was Bardeesy). I don’t know Ms. Karpoche, but she seems to me to be an exemplary public servant.

Finally, though the Conservatives usually are not a force in this constituency, their candidate is Wladyslaw Lizon, who was the M.P. for the federal constituency of Mississauga East-Cooksville from 2011 to 2015.

My Endorsement

Grenier is calling Taiaiako’n-Parkdale-High Park as a likely Liberal win. A few months ago, with a strong candidate with a local profile, it would likely have gone to the NDP. I’ve heard that Bardeesy is getting enthusiastic support, both from former students and from constituents, many of whom traditionally voted for NDP or Conservatives, but in this election see the issue as Trump and the best answer as Carney.

From my perspective as a third-generation Canadian – which some would say qualifies me as being “old stock” – I can’t help but notice the backgrounds of Karpoche (born in Nepal), Bardeesy (whose parents immigrated from Egypt), and Lizon (born in Poland). This speaks well of the openness of our society and our political system.

Were I living in Taiaiako’n-Parkdale-High Park, I would enthusiastically vote for Karim Bardeesy. I think the key issue is protecting our economy and sovereignty from the depredations – a word I’ve never used before in the context of Canada-U.S. relations – of Donald Trump and his administration and that the party leader who will do that most effectively is Mark Carney. And I would be proud to have as my M.P. a person with a strong and relevant background who will make an important contribution representing his constituents and influencing policy. Good luck, Karim.