The Conservatives narrowly won the Bay of Quinte byelection yesterday and Doug Ford said “the people of Bay of Quinte sent a clear message tonight by election a strong local champion who will fight the Liberal carbon tax and Bonnie Crombie’s plan to raise taxes.” Notice that even in saying thank you, Ford is launching an attack.

First Look at the Data

A dive into the data suggests that Ford should be concerned, not congratulatory. In the 2022 election, the Conservatives received 21,000 votes (49 %), the NDP 9000 (21 %), the Liberals 8000 (18 %), the Greens 3000 (6 %), and two small right-wing parties, New Blue and Ontario, 2000 (5 %). In the byelection, the Conservatives received 14,000 votes (39 %), the Liberals 12,000 (33 %), the NDP 9000 (23 %), the Greens 1000 (3 %), and the New Blue Party 400 (1 %). The turnout was 44,000 (46 %) in 2022 and 37,000 (38 %) in the byelection.

If you look at the vote totals in the two elections, the Conservative vote dropped by one-third or 7000 votes, the Greens by 2000, the NDP vote was unchanged, and the Liberal vote increased by 50 %, or 4000 votes. While one can’t be sure, it appears that there was a considerable shift between from Conservatives to Liberals. This is clearly good news for the Liberals.

Strategic Voting

The change in the vote also has implications for strategic voting in the next general election, a topic I discussed in a recent post. In 2022, conservative parties took 54 % of the vote, but in the byelection slightly less than 40 %. Conversely, the progressive vote share increased from 45 % to slightly less than 60 %. Despite the hopes of strategic voting advocates that the three progressive parties will coordinate their efforts, they won’t do that, so strategic voting will occur only when progressive voters perceive that one party has the best chance to defeat the Conservatives. In Bay of Quinte, the Liberals have moved far enough ahead of the NDP to justify that perception. This should give the Liberals an advantage in that constituency in the general election.

The broader question is whether, in the entire province, progressive voters see the Liberals as the party most likely to defeat the Conservatives. The Conservatives continued attacks on Bonnie Crombie – including last night – indicate that this is what they fear. As I also discussed in the post about strategic voting, the Liberal vote is more inefficient than the NDP vote. If progressive voters plus disillusioned Conservative voters move to the Liberals, this becomes an advantage because the Liberals have the potential in the next general election to win the many seats they lost by small margins in the last.

All Politics is Local

Following Tip O’Neill’s dictum that all politics is local, we should bear in mind some of the factors unique to Bay of Quinte. Former Conservative MPP Todd Smith was a strong candidate who, when given an onerous cabinet assignment, didn’t get angry but got even by quitting politics for a more lucrative and less stressful private sector job. The Liberal candidate, Sean Kelly, was both a city councilor and a radio personality (indeed, at the same station as Smith), which gave him strong name recognition.

Bay of Quinte is no longer a typical rural constituency that is part of the Conservative base. Prince Edward County has become wine and cider country as well as an upscale tourist destination for Torontonians and thus more likely to lean left.

Going Forward

Looking to the next election, the Liberals’ strength in the byelection means the Conservatives will intensify their attacks on Bonnie Crombie. Doug Ford has been contemplating calling an early election while the federal Liberals are still in power so he can run against them, particularly against the carbon tax. This byelection should give him pause, because fewer voters appear to be impressed with his record. The recent closure of the Ontario Science Centre has been an unpopular decision, and it too may have influenced the outcome.

For the Liberals, the challenge remains for Bonnie Crombie to provide a positive self-definition to counter the definition the Conservatives are trying to foist on her.