Obama’s Necessary but not Sufficient Conditions; The Transition: In the Name of God, Go!
November 5th, 2008
Looking back the morning after on Obama’s smashing election victory, I think it is clearly a result of a number of conditions, each one of which was necessary but not sufficient. It was only the entire set that was sufficient:
- In Barack Obama a superb orator and leader,
- A Republican ticket that combined two shallow candidates, one unstable (McCain) and the other inept (Palin),
- A wildly unpopular Republican incumbent,
- The perfect storm of the economic crisis during the campaign itself,
- The powerfully innovative use of web technology by the Obama campaign to mobilize its supporters, and
- The enthusiasm and energy of Obama’s supporters, particularly young adults.
The Democrats had some of these conditions in recent campaigns but it was only this time that they all came together.
On to the transition. Let’s contrast the situation in the US and in parliamentary democracies. I am reminded of the moment in 1940 in a confidence vote concerning Prime Minister Chamberlain’s handling of the war when Conservative backbencher Leo Amery quoted Oliver Cromwell’s dismissal of the Long Parliament to devastating effect: “You have sat here too long for any good you have been doing! Depart, I say, and let us have done with you! In the name of God, go!” In a parliamentary system, George Bush would have heard these words years ago, and would have been long gone.
The transition in the UK is brutally short, with a defeated PM leaving 10 Downing Street the next day. In Canada, it takes a little longer - two or three weeks — given the need to choose a cabinet and assemble the political staff of the PMO and ministers. The long transition in the US was originally based on an estimate of the time it would take a winning candidate to pack up his household and journey to Washington. The justification for the long transition now is because of the large number of political appointments the President must make.
In normal times, the machinery of government grinds slowly during the transition, with the President trying for a last time to assert his agenda through executive decisions - likely to be reversed by his successor - and planning his last minute pardons (Conrad Black perhaps?). These are not normal times, however, as evidenced by the global economic summit to be held in Washington on November 15. Clearly the most influential American voice at the summit will be that of President-elect Obama. If the constitution makes it impossible for Bush to go immediately, then the best he can do for his nation and the world at the summit is to take on the role of butler, waiting in the background and not speaking. And let’s hope that in the ten weeks of transition - having lost the confidence of the American people - he attempts to do little and quickly fades out of sight.
Kwaku Mark
November 9th, 2008 at 5:52 am
This is the first time I’ve read anything about the Obama win that did not argue for one of the necessary condition as a sufficient condition. However, based on your set of necessary conditions, are you suggesting that race was not a necessary condition for his ascendancy to Presidency? I think his race is the one condition that made him an even more attractive candidate and also increased the voter turnout among many of the disenfranchised groups.
On a different note, I’m wondering if you plan to join the many pundits who are analyzing whether there could be a Canadian Obama? All the necessary conditions don’t appear to be present for such a titanic shift in Canadian politics for various reason. For one, Obama is a beneficiary of incremental ascendancy of minorities in the U.S. institutional offices. There are several Black and Hispanic mayors, Chief of Police, even a black person on the Supreme Court. None of these are present in Canada. I look forward to your blog on this topic….
Tanvir Sarwar
November 11th, 2008 at 1:42 pm
I agree with Mr. Mark.
It is my belief that one of the main reasons why Barack Obama was able to convince the American public that he was ready to be commander in chief, is the way he ran his campaign and presented himself as a candidate. This is evident in the way he performed during the debates and the polling results there after. They were more of Obama reassuring his people about his qualities and capabilities to lead the nation, than senator McCain making a mockery of him self (as was the case during the Bush debates).
One thing that cannot escape my mind is that I have a (for lack of better words) gut feeling that President Obama will have an assassination attempt on him. Not the schoolboy attempts that have been reported, but a seriously dangerous one.
I say this because Obama is a transformational figure. He has the ability to make changes, to make decisions out of the ordinary, and to challenge long-standing ideas. If he goes on to do what he promised during is campaign, if he brings people together, improves the state of the United States and inspires the world, then there will be a small minority who will oppose it. Perhaps those who cannot accept his “colour” in such an authoritative position, or those who cannot accept restoration of American power, stature and influence in the world, or perhaps those who have taken a monetary hit due to his ideas of “spreading the wealth” (which is similar to what we run here in Canada). But there will be an attempt to stop him in his tracks and I can only hope that it is not successful.